Who's winning on Facebook?

And then there were seven.

Posted on 02/24/2016
Tagged: eliketion election 2016 twitter super tuesday
Permalink | On Tumblr

It’s been a couple of months since we’ve updated this blog, and in a presidential election season, that’s a lifetime. Take a look at the data with the current crop of candidates.

In addition to Facebook data and news sources, we’ve been capturing and saving Twitter data, including volume of posts from the candidates, as well as tweet activity compared to the general Twittersphere. Should eLIKEtion’s popularity take off– and we have time –– we may add this information to the site.

We’ve been pruning candidates off the site as they suspend their campaigns, but fear not, we retain their data for future postmortem analysis, or in case they rise from the dead. Anything can happen these days. Come Super Tuesday, I believe the field will be winnowed further from seven today to a number closer to four. (We also started capturing Michael Bloomberg’s Twitter and Facebook data, just in case he decides to battle it out with his fellow New York billionaire.)

We’ve been recording tweets for political actors (@POTUS, @realDonaldTrump, and other candidates) and recording the mentions of each candidate. We’ve also been tracking the rates in which candidates have been tweeting themselves; For a little context here are some raw numbers:

Hillary & Faux Trump

(1/7 to now)

Tweets Per Day (48 Days)

@candiate mentions/hr

Donald Trump

16

4901.6

Hillary Clinton

21.95

2083.6

Ted Cruz

2

139.3

Bernie Sanders

28.45

47.5

Of the candidates we watch on Twitter, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are essentially blowing up my poor little server with their volume of tweets. Since Jan 7, Trump has been mentioned in 43.4% of all tweets containing names of any candidates. Clinton comes in a distant second during that time period, factoring in 18.5%. Bernie Sanders says the most, but gets the fewest mentions.

Trump pulls ahead.

Posted on 12/28/2015
Tagged: politics twitter election 2016 dataisbeautiful
Permalink | On Tumblr
image

I took some time this week to reflect and consider a little bit after Christmas.  I check eLIKEtion daily and I noticed a few trends.  As you might have noticed, Donald Trump has taken the top spot It seems that the former golden child Ben Carson started losing steam at the beginning of December.  It could be attributed to “Hummus” gaffe, or any number of issues.  Or it could just be what some analysts thought of all along, that Ben Carson was a flash in the pan.  Either way, the top spot now belongs to Donald Trump on Facebook.  

image

Donald Trump has overtaken him in overall likes and shows no sign of slowing down.  To get another “the Donalds” gravitas, I adjusted our Tweetvolume to capture all of the tweets mentioning each of the candidates so I might get an idea of how much the candidates were also being talked about.  Over the last 7 days, Trump has commanded all of the conversation, getting mentioned in 55% (304,665) of 553,711 tweets that had a candidate handle in them.  Talk about a lot of bluster.   

We’ve also integrated the Tumblr blog into the website, so look for a more brisk publishing pace in the future.  

Thanks for reading!

Welcome

Posted on 12/08/2015
Tagged: politics eliketion socialmedia dataisbeautiful donald trump ben carson jeb bush
Permalink | On Tumblr

Over the next year or so I will attempt to draw meaning from the data we’ve started to capture with regards to simple indicators of popularity; such as Facebook Likes.   For a little background – we had an initial supposition: The single indicators of “likes” or “followers” for each of the presidential candidates could denote how well a candidate is doing in a campaign cycle.

As far as I can tell social media’s place in elections is not something that’s very well understood. It’s safe to assume that each candidate considers social media important, as to what impact social popularity has on it’s own is unclear. 

At Wowza, we work extensively on trying to let data speak for itself.  By looking at Facebook in the simplest manner we think we start to see what conclusions recording this data might bring.

A few observations from the first two months of gathering data: First of all, Ben Carson and Donald Trump are winning in the Like department; and when I say “winning” - I mean they are winning hard. So, for our first installment of the Eliketion blog it makes sense to start with the Republican frontrunners.  

If you haven’t peeked over at the eLIKEtion front page lately, what you see might be suprising.  Ben Carson has more likes then Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton COMBINED.  Trump is nearly at that level, showing extreme proclivity to enlist the entire populations of mid sized cities to like him within a scant 24 hours.

image

Facebook likes are one source of power for Donald Trump

Second of all, the volume of likes accrued doesn’t correlate really to “good” or “bad” articles regarding a candidate.  If you follow the election at all, you probably understand that this single metric doesn’t exactly fit with perceived enthusiasm, or even the narrative from popular political pundits about the direction of the Republican Primary race.  Jeb Bush was originally declared the favorite, and still draws plenty of news coverage despite incredibly lackluster poll numbers and equally disappointing Facebook performance.

There were also particularly interesting periods in which the Republican “frontrunners” had what could be called a “burst”.  “Bursts” are days in which candidates gained over 1,000 likes per hour.  The hypothesis is that something happened for those candidates that created a call for support, and coincides with the news cycle during these “burst” days.  

For example, Ben Carson has had a few days with explosive growth.  On October 30th, news articles covered primarily Ben Carson’s faith, and on that day he netted roughly 1,495 likes an hour – On Nov 5th, Carson came under fire because CNN supposedly couldn’t corroborate any key story from his autobiography and that his scholarship to West Point never existed.  This lead to the Carson campaign countering that this was a “political hit job”, and it appears that conservatives rallied behind Carson at the blazing pace of 1,636 Facebook Likes an hour.  Carson also did extremely well after his November 10th debate performance, gaining 3,266 likes an hour, most of which came after 6pm (debate time!).

image

To contrast with a poorer performing candidate, the best day Jeb Bush had earned a paltry 28 likes an hour.  That’s less then 2 likes per minute.   On his worst day, Ben Carson managed nearly double that (58 likes per hour on December 4th).  According to a study by the University of Houston, comparing yourself to other people isn’t good for you.  Thankfully we can take care of that for you, Jeb, so rest easy.  

Here is the graph showing all three candidates side by side, and the average hourly rate they accrued likes since we’ve started capturing data.

image

If you want to get more updates as they come, subscribe to our newsletter, or Like us on Facebook.

- Zack Carlson